Corona Virus

That looks like a vision of hell.........

 

It really kinda does, doesn't it?

 

They’re not partying, they’re making soup!

 

As long as it's not Brown Winsor

 

Just so folk can see how things currently stand (anyone who reads this thread regularly will understand my concerns over an overloaded NHS at the peak of the infection bell curve) Our “hospitals trust” has announced today that we have currently NO confirmed COVID-19 cases on any of our sites. We had 172 deaths (upto this point) directly attributable to CV19 & 404 x CV19 discharges since 1st March. (We are a relatively small trust spread out over a large rural area with a few towns in our catchment)
Our normal ICU capacity was roughly 14 beds (With a couple more “over-spill” potential for emergency situations)
Staff I know have suffered, one is at home in a wheelchair on O2, I know one who died... there are more staff that I don’t know still off work with residual effects (mental and physical).
BUT... we’re regrouping and slowly getting our services back on line, clinics are being reworked (telephone and video instead of face to face etc) and we’re becoming a health service again instead of an emergency service. It’s going to be a long road... 5 month of lost “normal activity” to try and make up... but we’ll get there.

 

Not only did you guy’s do a fantastic job during the past 5 months, you continue to do it. We must not forget that continued commitment.

 

Top job you Guy's and Gal's did, here's hoping no second wave materialises over the winter

 

I think it won't take until winter in Manchester!

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...hester-news/it-out-hand-only-invited-18790703

 

Just for info.........wife had swab test a month ago or so which showed positive. More recently, due to a new role within the NHS, she has just received today test results for antibody test.....which showed positive. This confirms our suspicions that we all had Covid 19 in mid March. Now we know she has had it and has antibodies, I'm going to let her sleep indoors again.

 

She is obviously stupid. She says she will now have to visit relatives at THEIR houses. At this moment in time there is a type of lockdown in Greater Manchester which does not allow that.

 

I found this disheartening but unfortunately not altogether surprising since COVID is more flu-like than a disease like smallpox from my understanding.

I found the graph about rising rates per 100,000 in Spain, France, the UK, Germany, and Italy interesting. If I'm reading the graph correctly, Spain looks horrific at what estimates to be 80-85 cases per 100,000. To put it in perspective, check out these graphs. "Lucky" Mr. Sandi and me--our state of Arizona is high on the U.S. list. 2,697 per 100,000 according to statista and 2,705 as reported in the NY Times. We live in Pima County which has a rate of "only" 1,926 / 100,000. Yikes. Maybe we should move to Spain. Or the UK. Fortunately and thankfully, our total number of daily cases is (finally) starting to go down at least.

 

I thought Ted Nugent was a twat when I saw him live at Reading Festival in 1976!

 

@Sandi. That's a case rate of 2.7%, of which 10% likely to become severe and 10% of those die. These figures are improving all the time. You don't need to move anywhere......just keep observing the oft stated rules......keep your distance, wash your hands, wear your mask when in public. The number of cases will go up as they are testing more people each day. The media are having a field day at your expense......

 

In that case, based on comparative stats I'm seeing from other countries, it would seem that no place else on the planet has anything to worry about! Re. more testing, I've been following the positivity rate changes as more people are tested. People around where I live have until recently had to be on death's door to get a COVID test. Geez, at that point, why bother? Of course positivity will be high under those circumstances. But as testing is more widespread and people who are asymptomatic can elect to be tested, it seems to me that the positivity rate is at least somewhat more meaningful. Testing everyone or testing true random samples at appropriate power would be the most helpful of all but I don't see that ever happening here. Thanks for your input, Thripster.

But, hey, what if I WANT to move somewhere!? August was our hottest month on record with nearly every day exceeding 105ºF. I do have to say I'm quite used to it now and have acclimated nicely. But I have had lots of practice. Today I went for a ride at noon and the temp was 97ºF and it felt quite balmy.

 

@Sandi. So sorry, yes you must move wherever you wish. Southern hemisphere would be my bet in the short term.

 

Headline in the Private Eye (28th August - 10 September 2020 issue). . Page 7 in highlighted box entitled number crunching: '62.4 Coronavirus deaths per 100,000 population in the UK, also the biggest of any G7 nation.'
Firstly, (same caveats apply as previously regarding the difficulties by those that have suffered/treated the disease) that figure is tiny being 0.0624%.
Secondly, the UK has been including deaths of people that have died with Coronavirus and not necessarily died of Coronavirus - each country uses differing criteria for recording deaths and so to claim that it is 'also the biggest of any G7 nation.' shows an incompetent grasp of the responsible use of statistics and/or blatant political mischief.

By comparison:-

In 2014/2015 there were 34,300 deaths attributable to influenza. Population of 65 million. That is a death rate of 0.0528%.
In 2016/2017 there were 17,592 deaths attributable to influenza. Population of 66 million. That is a death rate of 0.0272%.

You can draw your own conclusions. Let us hope that there is not a winter surge or a mutation which causes the Coronavirus rates to increase significantly.

Source of data:-

Surveillance of influenza and other
respiratory viruses in the UK:
Winter 2017 to 2018 (Public Health England).

https://assets.publishing.service.g...espiratory_viruses_in_the_UK_2017_to_2018.pdf

 

Thripster, would you please clarify when you say 2014/2015 and 2016/2017, does that mean data for all of 2014 and 2015 combined and 2016 and 2017 combined? Is it whatever is considered "flu season"? If so, what is that timeframe? I find that confusing. My understanding is that Covid data it is from 2020 only so it this point it covers about eight months. I'm not sure the comparison is apples to apples.

 

Hi Sandi. Thanks for your interest. 2014 to 2015 represents a year's worth of data. Similarly for 2016/2017. It just so happens that the data is collected either side of year end/beginning. I chose to give a couple of illustrations to show best and worse cases. All the data is available by using the link provided. The key point, rather than get too absorbed in minutiae, is that deaths due to Coronavirus in terms of numbers is small. No disrespect to those who have suffered from it or who are dealing with it.

 

Generally found PE very good over recent months; MD's reporting has been very good I felt - critical of the Govt when they deserved it, but also acknowledging their rare successes.

Surprised they are still using that figure as it was recalculated a few weeks ago to actually reflect reality better - for example, the Economist is using much better data now.

But hey, I've long since ceased being surprised by shoddy journalism!

DS